CSIL is contributing to PROPOLIS – Projecting Regional Outcomes of Policies Aimed at Industrial Sovereignty – an applied research project funded under the ESPON 2030 Cooperation Programme.
Europe is entering a new phase of industrial policy, characterised by increasing attention to competitiveness, technological leadership, strategic autonomy and industrial sovereignty. Policies supporting strategic technologies, including semiconductors, clean energy, artificial intelligence and advanced materials, could strengthen Europe’s economic and geopolitical position, while contributing to objectives such as climate neutrality, energy security and sustainable mobility. However, concentrating investment, talent and innovation capacity in selected technologies or territories may produce uneven regional outcomes. PROPOLIS examines how different industrial policy approaches could influence innovation, entrepreneurship, investment, employment and regional development, and under which conditions their benefits could extend beyond Europe’s leading regions.
PROPOLIS combines agent-based macroeconomic modelling, qualitative foresight and scenario analysis to investigate alternative approaches to industrial sovereignty. The project builds on and extends the EURACE@Unibi agent-based modelling framework developed by the University of Bielefeld. Simulations will explore the territorial effects of different industrial policy trajectories, ranging from concentrated, mission-oriented strategies supporting frontier technologies to more distributed approaches based on experimentation, entrepreneurial discovery and the diffusion of innovation. The analysis assesses how different configurations may affect regional innovation, investment, entrepreneurship, employment and industrial development. It will also examine the conditions under which knowledge spillovers, technological opportunities and industrial upgrading can spread from leading innovation centres to other European regions.
CSIL leads PROPOLIS' data collection and preparation for the calibration of the agent-based macroeconomic model, assembling evidence on regional economies, technological capabilities and territorial differences across Europe. CSIL also contributes to the design and simulation of alternative technology and industrial policy scenarios and to territorial analysis at NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 levels. The assessment examines potential effects on innovation, entrepreneurship, investment, employment, territorial disparities and regional cohesion under different models of policy prioritisation, experimentation and technology diffusion. Policy assessment, qualitative foresight and stakeholder engagement will support the interpretation of the results. CSIL will also contribute to policy briefs, visual tools and other outputs communicating the territorial implications of alternative industrial sovereignty strategies.