This research project analysed how the COVID-19 crisis affected individual well-being and business competitiveness across Italy, with a particular focus on the most vulnerable territorial areas. By leveraging data on household conditions, labour force participation, and business performance, the project estimated spatial microsimulation scenarios to evaluate the impact of the crisis and the effectiveness of policy measures designed to mitigate its negative economic effects.
The project was funded through the Italian Ministry of Research’s Fund for Economic and Social Research as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbation of existing territorial inequalities, particularly in the provision of essential services such as healthcare and education. The crisis revealed critical vulnerabilities in less developed regions, which were often less equipped to respond to the shock, potentially widening the territorial disparities. Additionally, the crisis highlighted the differing impacts across regions due to variables such as urbanisation levels, population density, economic and commercial relationships, and the age structure of the population.
The primary aim of the project was to understand how the pandemic and the associated policy measures affected the well-being of individuals and the competitiveness of businesses, particularly in less developed and more vulnerable areas. The project sought to answer key questions: What was the impact of the pandemic and the measures introduced to counter the crisis on household well-being and economic competitiveness? Which territorial areas were most and least vulnerable and resilient to the crisis? How did the pandemic exacerbate territorial disparities in employment and income? What role did policy measures play in mitigating these impacts, and what might have been the effects of alternative policies?
To achieve these objectives, the project employed advanced statistical methodologies to combine geographically detailed data with traditional datasets typically used in distributive analyses. This approach facilitated the creation of a novel dataset, enabling the development of fiscal microsimulation techniques to estimate the impact of the pandemic on individual and household employment and income. On the company side, the project explored the feasibility of developing a microsimulation model for Italian businesses by building a novel, company-level dataset that allows for providing statistical insights on business competitiveness at the provincial level. The project culminated in the development of an econometric model to analyse the impact of COVID-19 restriction policies on businesses and to study the territorial disparities, particularly in less developed and more vulnerable provinces. The developed models also enabled counterfactual scenario microsimulations to assess the levels of well-being and competitiveness that might have been achieved under different policy approaches.
The project’s results offer contributions to understanding the short-term socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis and the role of public policies in mitigating these effects. The open-source tools and models developed during the project were made available for future research, ensuring that the project’s impact would extend beyond its duration.
Cover image generated with Google AI Studio. The illustration is for visual and illustrative purposes only and does not depict actual project data or outcomes.